Jian-Da Zhu 朱建達 Assistant Professor Department of Economics, Fu Jen Catholic University |
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Contact InformationE-mail: jdzhu@mail.fju.edu.twPhone: +886-2-2905-2685 Address: No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 242062, Taiwan Research InterestsIndustrial Organization, Applied Microeconomics, Econometrics |
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[Curriculum Vitae] | [Research] | [Teaching] |
Damages from tropical storms are enormous and predicted to increase with climate change. This study uses high-frequency data to investigate typhoons’ effects through information channels on Taiwan’s wholesale vegetable market during the 1996-2014 period. We first identify effects on prices and quantities during storms’ striking periods and further separate price effects into those due, respectively, to supply and demand shifts. The results show that for typhoons that make landfall, prices rise significantly during the striking period, and the decomposition results indicate that most of the price effects during periods with warnings but no landfall are due to demand shifts, which supports evidence of precautionary purchases by consumers. However, during the landfall period, the price effect is mainly driven by decreased supply. In addition, we find that typhoon effects differ between specific vegetables, and the magnitude of precautionary purchase is correlated with expected damage to those vegetables. Consumers also make more precautionary purchases when they face higher-intensity typhoons or learn typhoons will make landfall within 24 hours, and such prior information related to intensity or landfall urgency can also amplify early harvest effects by farmers.
An ongoing debate regarding the evolution of morality is whether other species show precursory moral behavior. The veil of ignorance (VOI) paradigm is often used to elicit human moral judgment but has never been tested in other primates. We study the division of resources behind the VOI in Formosan macaques. Monkeys choose the equal division more often than what pure selfishness would imply, suggesting a degree of impartiality. To better understand this impartiality, we measure a monkey’s reactions to two directions of inequity: one regarding inequity to its advantage and the other to its disadvantage. We find that disadvantageous inequity aversion correlates with the degree of impartiality behind the VOI. Therefore, seemingly impartial behavior could result from a primitive negative reaction to being disadvantaged. This suggests a mechanism to explain a tendency toward impartiality.
This research uses a difference-in-differences framework to investigate the effect of new risk information on housing prices in Taiwan. The results show that this information changed individuals’ subjective risk perceptions, so that housing prices in the highest-risk areas dropped, but only temporarily in the first three months after the disclosure. This information effect happened for those apartments lacking certain earthquake-resistant characteristics. In addition, we investigate the dynamics of the effect around the boundary. We demonstrate that individuals were able to form continuous risk beliefs based on discrete information, and the housing prices dropped more sharply for apartments located closer to the center of the highest-risk area. Furthermore, individuals had updated their risk beliefs differently for apartments with different levels of earthquake resistance. For apartments with the least earthquake resistance, the immediate price drops were larger, and the housing prices returned to normal more slowly, relative to the safer apartments. Most notably, the effect did not disappear at all for those apartments with the least earthquake resistance that were also located in the center of the highest-risk area.
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This paper uses a difference-in-differences framework to examine the impact of Taiwan's 2016 tax reform on the housing market. The empirical results show that the implementation of the capital gains tax reduced capital gains, rates of return, and the proportion of transactions with positive gains, indicating a lock-in effect for transactions with high potential gains. In contrast, between the announcement and implementation, capital gains increased as sellers with high potential gains tended to sell their properties before the implementation. Finally, at the time of the tax regime change, capital gains sharply declined, reflecting sellers' self-selection behavior: those with high gains sold before the reform, while those with lower gains waited until after 2016.
This paper utilizes receipt lotteries in Taiwan along with comprehensive administrative data to examine the effect of cash windfalls on stock market participation and portfolio diversification. The results indicate that each million TWD (approximately 33,000 USD) windfall gain from winning receipt lotteries increases the probability of stock market participation by 1.09 percentage points. This effect is primarily driven by individuals who were not participating in the stock market prior to winning. For existing participants, each million TWD windfall increases the total value of stocks by 142,552 TWD, attributed to both an increase in their number of shares and higher average prices of the stocks they hold. Additionally, each million TWD windfall increases the total value of "new" stocks by 61,189 TWD, accounting for approximately 43% of the total increase in stock value. This demonstrates that cash windfalls can lead to portfolio diversification.
This paper examines the effects of incentivizing industrial users to reduce their electricity consumption using demand response auctions, in which the opportunity costs of electricity consumption depend on auction outcomes. Using data on bids, auction outcomes, and hourly electricity consumption from steel producers in Taiwan, this paper shows that failing to consider firms' strategic bidding behavior can lead to an overestimation of electricity reduction by at least 50%. We show that the overestimation works mainly through an adverse selection effect, in which firms bid low to win auctions when they anticipate low electricity consumption.
This research uses listing prices on StubHub, a secondary market for sports tickets, to show that sellers have reference-dependent preferences, affected by two types of reference points: face values and previous lowest transaction prices within the same section of the stadium. First, I show evidence of the bunching of listing prices at the reference points, which is consistent with the prediction from the theoretical model. Then, I use a structural model to estimate the parameters of the gain-loss utility and simulate results for the case without reference-dependent preferences. Compared with the actual data, the counterfactual results indicate that the listing prices for game tickets will be lower by around 19.30% on the last day before the game if sellers have no reference-dependent preferences. Furthermore, the probability of a typical listing being sold increases from 0.43 to 0.48 during the last two weeks. In addition, I use the number of listings in a season to proxy for the size of sellers, and the results show that big sellers are less likely to be affected by the face value than small sellers, which is consistent with the previous literature’s notion that market experience can eliminate the effect of reference points. However, sellers of different sizes are affected by the previous lowest transaction prices in a similar way, which suggests that market experience might only eliminate the effects of reference points such as the status quo, and not the effects of reference points such as recent outcomes.
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